Alex Rodriguez Might Accept A Trade

(UPDATE) Alex Rodriguez is once again not in the lineup for today's rescheduled game 4.

I was busy at work all day yesterday so I was unable to post, but if you missed it, there was a ton of talk about Miami being a possible destination for Alex Rodriguez if the Yankees do try an unload his contract this offseason. Well, today we have this report from Bob Nightengale that says if the situation was right, Alex, who has a full no-trade clause, may accept the deal:

Take a good, long hard look at him.

This will be the last time you'll ever see Alex Rodriguez in a New York Yankees uniform.

We might have already seen him play his last game for the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees, desperate for offense, and set to play in an elimination game Wednesday night, benched their greatest and most expensive star for the second consecutive game.

Though Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against the Detroit Tigers was postponed by rain, the Yankees already tipped their hand and had him on the bench, leaving A-Rod humiliated.

The Yankees are making it loud and clear they want Rodriguez out as quickly as possible.

Rodriguez, his pride and ego damaged beyond repair, is now telling close friends that he won't stand in the way.

Rodriguez, who has a full no-trade clause, won't ask to be traded, a person familiar with Rodriguez's thinking told USA TODAY Sports. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation.

...

He will welcome a trade, the person says, but it must to be to another big-market club. Hint: He won't be going to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The most likely choices would be the Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

First, let me say that A-Rod has been awful this October. However, so has 90% of the starting lineup so really, why are we still blaming everyone's favorite scapegoat?

To me, this whole situation was made much worse by Joe Girardi, and his benching of A-Rod for the last two games -- though he can still make up for the game 4 benching today if he has any clue. There are reports of a fractured clubhouse, and that he's completely lost the team, which only makes this 0-3 feel that much more insurmountable.

The decision to bench A-Rod is only made worse by his replacement, Eric Chavez. Chavez has been virtually invisible in his plate appearances this postseason and also made that costly error in game 3 that might have cost the Yankees the game and a chance to get back in this series.

Does this mean I think A-Rod would have gone 4-for-4 with a homer off Verlander? No, but I do think A-Rod could get his swing going if given the chance, especially away from all the boos in the Bronx. There's no reason to further embarrass the guy and disrupt the clubhouse for a replacement that has also done nothing this series.

No matter what the outcome, the thing that sticks out to me the most is how poorly the Yankees and Girardi have handled this mess. If you think about how good we all felt about this team after that four run 9th on Saturday it's amazing how quickly things have changed.

Sure, there is still more baseball to be played and mistakes could be corrected. Maybe A-Rod is in the lineup today, gets a couple hits, and the Yankees actually win a game in this series. Or maybe, and much more likely if you ask me, things just get worse, the Yankees get swept, and this really is the end of A-Rod in New York.

The Stats Say The Yankees Won't Miss A-Rod

Here's the story from ESPN Stats & Info: it was worth passing along:

According to AccuScore, which utilizes 10,000 computer simulations, A-Rod’s absence won’t impact the Yankees much. Assuming Rodriguez misses eight weeks, it won’t cost the Yankees even a full game. Regardless of whether he’s there or not, the odds of them winning the AL East are still better than 97 percent.

In terms of history, it’s unlikely the Yankees will surrender their eight-game lead in the AL East. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the largest lead the Yankees have had at any time in a season in which they did not finish in first place was six games in 1933 (June 6-7).

...

The Yankees haven’t been affected much over the past three seasons when Rodriguez is not in the lineup. Since 2010, they’re a combined 63-29 (.685 win percentage) without him and 188-142 (.570 win percentage) with him.

A-Rod’s power has declined significantly over the years. Since winning his last MVP in 2007, his at-bats per home run rate has more than doubled. He hit a homer once every 10.8 at-bats in 2007 but has homered once every 23.5 at-bats this season.

His slugging percentage has taken a hit recently as well. His .449 slugging percentage this season is his lowest since 1995 (.408).

Entering Wednesday, 16 third basemen were qualified for the batting title. The cumulative batting average and slugging percentage of those 16 players is slightly better than Rodriguez’s numbers this season.

The article also pointed out that Eric Chavez has actually had better numbers than A-Rod this season in several key areas, including slugging percentage, home run percentage, isolated power and strikeout percentage. As I stated yesterday, my main concern with Chavez is his health, but if he can remain in the lineup I think he’ll handle replacing A-Rod pretty well.

Some of these stats are easy to push aside. The teams wins and losses with and without A-Rod are, for the most part, irrelevant. Unless we're going to sit here and break down the winning percentage of the teams the Yankees played with and without him, and then factor that into the results, you're not really getting the entire story.

The most important thing that the stats are neglecting is that Rodriguez was finally starting to get locked in at the plate. In his last 11 games, he was hitting .349/.391/.581 with 2 HR 6 RBI and 4 doubles. So, if we're talking about replacing that version of A-Rod then Chavez can't come close. But as we've seen, Rodriguez clearly not the player he used to be so it's very possible that the hot stretch wasn't going to last.

At the end of the day, I do believe the Yankees will be fine without Alex. Will it cost them a game or two here or there? Maybe. But they've survived losing the greatest closer of all time, their starting left fielder, a top of the rotation starter, and various other relievers and position players for weeks at a time, so they'll survive this.

.... Unless Chavez gets hurt. Then they may have a few issues.

Cashman: Chavez is our replacement for A-Rod

From Wallace Matthews:

New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said he has found a replacement for Alex Rodriguez without even making a phone call to another team.

"Eric Chavez is the solution," Cashman told ESPNNewYork.com on Wednesday, one day after Rodriguez suffered a broken hand after being hit by a pitch from Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez.

"Chavez is the solution and Jayson Nix is the solution, and whoever we have in the farm system are going to have to be the solution," Cashman said. "I'm very comfortable with Eric Chavez as Alex's replacement."

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"Because we're going to get him back, I don't see this as a particular area of need," Cashman said. "It doesn't mean I won't listen."

Among the third baseman expected to be available at the trade deadline are Chase Headley of the San Diego Padres, Placido Polanco and Ty Wigginton of the Philadelphia Phillies and Chone Figgins of the Mariners.

"I'm not about to gut my farm system for any of those guys," Cashman said.

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Chavez's injury history makes him a risk as an everyday player, but Cashman is confident in the veteran's durability.

"That's his job, to fill in as needed," he said. "That's what he's here for. I expect him to be able to play third base for us every day, and to play it well."

I'm not sure this is the right move, or non-move, for the Yankees. Mainly because I'm concerned about how fragile Chavez has become and the dire situation they'll be in if he does go down. However, from everything I've read today the asking price for all viable replacements is pretty high and Cashman is probably right that it's not worth gutting the system for any of those guys.

Yanks Resign Chavez to One-Year Deal

The deal is worth $900K.

Yanks To Sign Chavez and Ibanez Once AJ Deal is Approved

Bill Hall, and the (Not So) Super-Utility Bargain Bin

This post is syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

With the hot stove dwindling just below a simmer, yesterday saw Ken Rosenthal "break" a story with respect to the Yankees' interest in ... Bill Hall. This is indicative of, at the very least, Cashman's continued interest in having a veteran presence to spell Alex Rodriguez. A more optimistic and/or pessimistic view may be that the team is looking to send Eduardo Nunez packing - be it to Scranton to work on his ability to be the shortstop of the future, or to another team ... with the reader determining which version is the better-case scenario. Regardless of your preference, it seems unlikely that the team will do anything other than supplement their bench with such a signing. While none of this is particularly exciting, perusing the list of remaining free agent infielders should be a bit more than an exercise in futility ... so, there's that.

Bill Hall

The method to this madness, Hall "batted" .211/.261/.314, good for a 55 wRC+ and -1.6 fWAR, for the Astros and Giants in 2011 on the heels of a solid 2010 with the Red Sox (.247/.316/.456, 107 wRC+). His defensive metrics range from passable to horrific, albeit in small sample sizes at every position but catcher, with 3B being his best position ... and one that he did not play in 2011. At 32, he's a relatively known commodity, in that he's consistently inconsistent. His ability to man the outfield in a pinch does add some value.

Carlos Guillen

Guillen has played a total of 96 games over the past two seasons, with only 28 of those coming in 2011. He hasn't played a game at a position other than 1B, 2B, LF, or DH since 2008, and he hasn't played those positions terribly well, either. In reality, he only makes the cut to be listed due to his surprisingly stout numbers in 29 games between the two Yankee Stadiums - .293/.354/.500 - and to offer a tip of the cap to a once very good player.

Wes Helms

Helms can be filed under the "only if they're really desperate for a Rodriguez" category, as he has a .239/.300/.344 slash line over the past five seasons. The once solid defender at third has also regressed into something less than statuesque, to boot. Please bear with me, as Helms represents the absolute bottom of the barrel.

Felipe Lopez

Why, pray tell, is Felipe Lopez not the bottom of the barrel? I'm not sure. He did post very strong walk rates in 2009 and 2010 (10.4% and 10.0%, respectively) and he's a roughly average defender at 3B. There really isn't much more to say, though, as he was barely replacement-level in 2010 and below in 2011.

Aaron Miles

The personification of Tony La Russa's love affair with utility players and the double switch, Miles is something of an abomination with both the bat (his 2011 83 wRC+ was 10 points above his career norm) and the glove (at any position other than second). Why does he make the cut? Because he's gritty, and if there's anything the Yankees have been lacking over the last several years, it's grit.

Mark Teahen

In a vacuum, Teahen is an interesting player. Over his seven year career, he has produced slightly above-average walk rates and average-ish ISOs while playing significant innings in all four corners. Prior to his disastrous 2011 campaign, Teahen put up solid numbers against right-handed pitchers, including a solid .269/.332/.411 line between 2009 and 2010 while playing most of his games in the cavernous Kauffman Stadium. However, all of this represents quite a bit of puffery on my part. Teahen is probably a tick below average at 1B, LF, and RF, though his defensive metrics were fairly horrific. His 219.2 innings at the hot corner graded out fairly well by most metrics ... which represents a drastic turnaround for the rest of his career, and a contrarian view according to most scouts and analysts. Additionally, his ISO has slipped for three consecutive seasons and his wRC+ has went from a tick below-average to well below over the past two years. What does all of this mean? In something of a twist ... I'd endorse a minor league deal, or something of that nature for Teahen. Why? Yankee Stadium should suit his swing, he's still young enough to have something left in the tank, and anyone looks palpable on the heels of Aaron Miles.

Eric Chavez

To the best of my knowledge, the last real news regarding Chavez's intentions was way back in November, when he stated that he intends to play in 2012. Much has been written about Chavez's still-solid defense (9.5 UZR/150, 0 TZ, 1 DRS), fine pre-injury production (.303/.410/.424) and post-injury swoon (.252/.294/.339), so it seems redundant to add much else.

If the team is merely looking for a caddy for Rodriguez - that is, someone to spell him occasionally - then Chavez seems like a fine option as a known commodity to the team. That being said, his injury issues remain fairly disconcerting, even in a limited capacity, and it seems that the Yankees would like a semi-reliable option to spell Rodriguez. Unfortunately, with Wilson Betemit signing with the Orioles, however, that option doesn't seem to exist on the free agent market.

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Heyman on Yanks: Chavez, Jones, Gonzalez

I like the idea of bringing Jones and Chavez back a lot. They were both solid bench players and there's no reason they can't do the same, or better, next year. Chavez obviously has his health issues, but even if he has to spend some time on the DL it's worth bringing him back.

As for Gonzalez, since coming to the AL he's certainly been knocked down a beg going 3-5 with just 2 saves and a 4.27 ERA in 85 appearances for the O's. Prior to his move to the AL, Gonzalez had an impressive 2.57 ERA 302 appearances for the Pirates and Braves. Clearly age is either catching up with the left-hander, or he's a pitcher better suited to face lineups where pitchers hit.

He was pretty good against lefties in 2011, holding them to a triple-slash of .214/.264/.311, so maybe there's some value there. Not sure the move is necessary, but as I've said a thousand times, extra pitching is always a good thing.